Fall Housing Predictions

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The Oldham Group Austin | Courtney Oldham

Fall Housing Market Outlook

July 28, 2023

The Oldham Group Austin | Courtney Oldham

Predictions from the
Central Texas Housing Summit

I recently attended the Central Texas Housing Summit and heard the likes of Mayor Kirk Watson, Gary Farmer and real estate economist Dr. Clare Losey weigh in on the outlook for Austin’s residential market.

News from Mayor Kirk Watson:

  • In May, Council passed a resolution to eliminate citywide parking mandates
  • In June, Council moved to reduce the city’s “compatibility” standards which limit building heights depending on how close they are to single-family homes
  • In July, Austin City Council passed a resolution to decrease the minimum single-family lot size from 5,750 square feet to 2,500 square feet. The plan amends the development code to allow at least three housing units per lot (the current maximum is two & deed restrictions still trump zoning).
  • Watson hired consulting firm McKinsey & Company to analyze what he calls the city’s “wildly inefficient” development review process and more change is coming!!

Dr. Losey’s Outlook:

  • The Austin labor market remains robust, posting 4.4% YoY job growth in June, a slight uptick from May’s 4.1% figure.
  • The unemployment rate, at 3.5% in June, continues to reflect historically low levels. The Professional and Business Services and Leisure and Hospitality sectors posted the strongest job growth, at 6.5% and 6.6% YoY in June, respectively.
  • Affordability is an issue for our area. Median family income is $110K which equates to a mortgage on a $330K home. Less than 10% of the homes in Austin meet that price point – there is a drive to qualify!
  • Federal Reserve raised the federal funds by 0.25 percentage points. Mortgage rates rose slightly and as of 7/27 the 30 fixed rate was at 7.12%.
  • Inflation is slowing, prompting predictions for lower rates in Q1 of 2024.

Courtney’s Outlook:
Supply in Austin remains low, especially at a time when more job and population growth is anticipated. If interest rates do drop, even slightly, we will see a very healthy Q1 2024 and acceleration into Spring – this will lead to higher sales volume and pricing. If you’re on the fence, this is the time to buy!

Want to know the value of your home or how current market conditions would impact a potential sale? Give Courtney a call at 512-809-5495.

Featured Properties

6903 Kenosha Pass

4 BD | 2.5FB | .49 AC | $1,079,000


Incredible ranch style home on oversized half acre lot with mature oak trees in sought after Southwest Austin! This classic one-story limestone home has an open floor plan with two separate living spaces, elegant interiors, generous rooms and stunning architectural details like beamed ceilings & wood trusses. Private back yard, gas-heated saltwater pool. No HOA, close to HEB, Costco & Whole Foods!

Listed by: Courtney Oldham, Compass RE

7116 Vallecito Drive

3 BD | 2 FB | 1641 SF | $600,000


Beautiful two-story home with soaring cathedral-style ceilings on oversized .25 acre lot with mature oak trees in the sought after Oak Forest neighborhood. This classic limestone home has an open floor plan with two separate living spaces, elegant interiors and stunning architectural details like cedar-wrapped beams and a limestone fireplace. The gourmet kitchen has been meticulously updated.

OPEN HOUSE on Sunday 7/30 from 1-3 PM

Listed by: Courtney Oldham, Compass RE

8206 Dixon Drive

3 BD | 2 FB | 1252 SF | $450,000


WOW! Check out this great South Austin home with great curb appeal and thoughtful updating on a large lot and quiet street in the popular 78745 zip code! Beautiful kitchen has tile countertops and backsplash with custom-made finishes and tons of cabinetry with modern hardware. Spacious living area has soaring cathedral-style ceilings and newly installed luxury vinyl plank flooring!

Listed by: Courtney Oldham, Compass RE

2601 Sixpence Lane

5 BD | 3.5 BA | 2764 SF | $575,000


This gorgeous home on an oversized, corner lot in the coveted Commons at Rowe Lane has all the bells and whistles including a Generac home backup generator, solar panels, gorgeous outdoor living with spacious patio, pergola and storage barn! Inside you’ll enjoy an open floor plan with four beds, three baths and ample entertaining and dining spaces! The home boasts a spacious open concept kitchen with granite countertops, tile backsplash and stainless appliances, perfect for family meals and entertaining guests.

Listed by: Courtney Oldham, Compass RE

5th Street

555 E. 5th Street #901

2 BD | 2 FB | Corner Unit | 1,389 SF | $799,999


Welcome home to the 5FiftyFive located in the Residences at the Hilton! This spacious 2 bedroom and 2 bathroom condo is move-in ready with recently upgraded wood floors and paint. Floor to ceiling windows provide captivating views to the north and east. Entertain friends or relax with a cup of coffee on the wrap around porch! Connected to the Hilton Hotel, the residences have a private entrance with 24-hour concierge services, with access to restaurants, bars, and the Starbucks coffee at the lobby level.

Listed by: Courtney Oldham, Compass RE

What's Happening

Violet Crown Trail

Saturday, July 29th | 9:00 AM
Come celebrate the completion of the Violet Crown Trail this weekend! The newest one-mile segment connects Home Depot Blvd and Brodie Ln to Mopac just north of William Cannon Drive, making the Violet Crown Trail contiguous from Zilker Park to Slaughter Creek. Click here to learn more!

5 Soul Wine Co.

Step inside a modern winery where they are serving up wine by the glass or bottle. With ample seating and multiple TVs, you’ll feel right at home! Have you joined the pickleball craze! You can utilize the pickleball courts, they are charged by the hour. MORE

Barbie Movie

Grab a GREAT pink outfit at a local favorite like LuxRox or Estilo and grab a ticket to see the Barbie movie. I took my daughter, Rylee, this week and enjoyed the campy fun…and the monologue! GET TIX

Austin FC

Friday, July 28th | 7:30 PM
Cheer on Austin FC as they face Fútbol Club Juárez in a thrilling Leagues Cup game at Q2 Stadium. Experience the passion for soccer, indulge in local food and beverages during half-time, and join in the enthusiastic support for “Verde Listos.” Reserve your seats here!


Knowing what your home is worth is important information to have if you are thinking of selling your home. Call Courtney 512-809-5495 for a current pricing analysis and a customized strategy for selling your property in today’s market.

The Oldham Group Austin | Courtney Oldham

Courtney Oldham

© Compass 2024 | All Rights Reserved by Compass | Made in NYC

The information contained herein does not purport to be complete nor, necessarily, accurate and should be independently verified; nor does it represent or constitute a legal analysis or financial advice. All of the financial projections and/or conclusions are provided for illustration purposes only. Compass and its agents disclaim any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained in, or for omissions from, the information contained herein or any other written or oral communication transmitted or made available to the recipient. This represents an estimated sale price for this property. It is not the same as an opinion of value in an appraisal developed by a licensed appraiser under the Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice.

Thank you for your interest, we will be in touch shortly!

Team Oldham Group | Moving Austin Forward | Courtney Oldham